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Thursday, February 16, 2017

Iceland, from an economic catastrophe to a football surprise.


Iceland "the land of snow" a Little country with less than 330,000 inhabitants, attracted the attention of the world by participating for the first time in a Eurocup, France 2016 and eliminating a big one such as England and reaching the quarter-finals. While Iceland was in the mouths of all football fans, in the economic and financial field just a few know that this small nation experienced a enormous catastrophe after the financial crisis of 2009 being the largest bank collapse in history.

The history

Well, this story begins in 2000 when the government of Iceland did a banking deregulation, privatizing the three largest banks: Landsbanki, Kaupping, and Glitnir. By 2003 banks began to expand overseas, international conditions and European legislation allowed it to be an attractive business look beyond the island.

In a period of five years, the three small Icelandic banks that had never operated outside Iceland borrowed $ 120 billion, 10 times the economy, ie 1000% of Iceland's GDP at that time, in contrast, Lehman Brothers represented only 5% of the GDP of the United States. It created a huge bubble, the value of the stock market increased nine times.
According to data from the Central Bank of Iceland, just before bankruptcy, banks held their shares in krónur while two-thirds of their assets were in foreign currency, especially British pounds. The engine of the crisis was the Icelandic króne. When the market does not provide enough foreign exchange, the capacity of a central bank to help banks is limited. The Icelandic bank had seven times the country's GDP in foreign currency.
The crisis
Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the United States on September 25, the Glitnir bank asked the Central Bank for $ 600 million to repay a maturing loan in October. The Government intervened on September 29th buying 75% of its shares for 600 million. Their titles fell 75%. This did not restore confidence in the financial system, the international deposits of its banks escaped from Iceland and the Financial Supervisory Authority (FME) intervened on October 6 to avoid the total fall of the banking nationalization also the Landsbanki.
When Iceland's banks sank at the end of 2008, unemployment tripled in six months, from 3% to 9%, the inhabitants of Iceland were affected and many lost their savings. The government's financial supervisory authority did not protect citizens, as competing against bank lawyers was an impossible task, to the point that one-third of the regulator's employees were employed by the banks.

After Iceland's three largest banks broke down within three days, and the currency collapsed, the stock market fell 95 percent and almost all businesses on the island were bankrupt. Interest rates rose from 14% to 18%, Icelanders who had loans, could no longer pay them, had to sell their assets.

To deal with the external debts of the banks, the State, and the taxpayers had to assume responsibility, at least in part. Each family had to pay 3,500 Kronur for 15 years at 5.5% interest, the Icelanders called a referendum for March 2010 and 93% of the voters said "no" to the payment of bank debts by the Icelandic state. The government renegotiated the payment with new conditions, lowered the interest rate to 3% and the pay period would be 37 years (until 2046) but with a second referendum in 2011, the Icelanders rejected it.

To solve the problem, the 3 major banks announced their bankruptcy in the first instance and online bank Landsbanki was nationalized; while the other two were divided into a "New Bank" and an "Old Bank". The first, with new capital, assumed activities such as payment transactions, automated teller machines (ATM) allowing the population access to their savings, lending, among others. The second, it received debts and all foreign businesses with toxic assets, whose settlement was made through a bankruptcy procedure.
The bank Kaupthing today is called Arion and the bank Glitnir is now called Islandsbanki. The three banks, now partly in foreign hands, are now limited to carrying out traditional banking operations within the country.
Iceland did what it seemed like no other developed country was minded to do: it imprisoned a bunch of bankers. The population prevented those responsible for the bad management of the banks from receiving, as in other countries, huge sums of money when they left office. A parliamentary commission of inquiry published a 2,000-page report that points to some 30 leaders of banks, government officials and the central bank as the main culprits in the financial meltdown. The Supreme Court judged 4 of them condemning them to sentences of between 5 and 6 years of jail.
The crisis did not last for long. The energetic policy, backed by the inhabitants yielded results quickly. Tourism and the fishing industry benefited from the loss of value of the Krone, which fell against the US dollar, from ISK 50-80 per dollar to ISK 110-115. They imported less expensive consumer goods but increased domestic production. Three years after the fall registered in 2009, there was a growth of 3% more than the average of the European Union. In 2011 inflation was already 3% and the unemployment rate reached 5%, there was no unemployment among young people, unlike other countries. It also helped the decision taken in 2013 by the European Free Trade Association Court that rejected the responsibility of the State in foreign bank debts. The decline of the Icelandic crown was the decisive precondition for the rapid re-establishment.After the crisis, the Icelandic kroon has stabilized at about 30% below its pre-crisis value.

The post-crisis scenario:

The latest data on the debt-to-GDP ratio was 68.5% down from the 95.1% cap after the outbreak of the crisis, the USD / ISK pair is at 113.21, quite far from the 67 Of the crisis. The unemployment rate reached 2.9% by the end of 2016. The level of inflation was 1.9%, even lower than before the crisis. The annual rate of GDP growth by the end of 2016 was 10.2% reaching levels close to the rapid pre-crisis growth.

The soccer awakening

The Icelandic surprise would start from the qualifying round to the Eurocup 2016, 10 matches, a complicated group with selections like Netherlands, Turkey and Czech Republic. The Icelandic side scored 17 goals, winning 6 games, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.7 goals per game and only 0.6.
Iceland was one of the reasons why the Netherlands were out of the EURO, and for the first time in their history they came to compete in a European championship, looking back, the Icelandic team had never participated in a big tournament and how Is commonly said in football was always a "cinderella" a team with which the big ones took for granted their victory either outside or at home.
Iceland would become the least populated country in a final phase (it has more volcanoes than professional footballers), 8% of the population moved to support their selection in France (Del Rio, 2016).
It would give the first blow in the Eurocopa when facing the Portugal of Cristiano Ronaldo obtaining a tie and showing like a complicated rival, with an iron defense and an effective attack. It achieved two draws and a victory being in second place behind Hungary (which was also surprising).
In the quarterfinals will happen something historic, the Icelandic team faced England and won a dramatic victory 2-1, the English press catalog have been "Humiliated by a team led by a dentist."
In the knockout rounds, and after being made viral by chants and "Viking" celebrations, the story would not be so enjoyable, 98% of Icelandic households tuned a painful defeat against the local, the French team thrashed 5-2 to the fierce Icelanders, who in fact after suffering the first goals lost concentration but did not lower their arms until the end.
Today, Iceland is not only in position 20 in the FIFA ranking, it is a nation that has risen from the ashes after the most disastrous economic crisis of its history, the small land of snow, home to beautiful landscapes is undoubtedly an example for the world.

References:

Del Rio, J. (2016). 7 curiosities from Iceland that you may not know. Recovered from:http://www.marca.com/futbol/eurocopa/2016/06/28/57726e99ca4741a95c8b460b.html

Iceland, the crisis of a country less populated than Las Palmas. Recovered from:Http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2012/04/23/economia/1335196633.html

Wuthrich, W. (2015). The Icelandic way to the financial crisis. Recovered from:

Other links:
Central Bank of Iceland. Web page: Http://www.cb.is
Economic data, Website: Http://www.tradingeconomics.com/iceland


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